October Jobs Report

While the US is technically out of recession, it provides little relief for those trying to seek or save jobs.  October jobs data reports an umployment rate of 10.2%, its highest since April 1983.  This is higher than last month’s 9.9% and actually worse than expected; economists were betting that the rate would be at 9.9%.

Some slight good news though: the number of people who lost their jobs are 190,000, down from 219,000 in September although this was worse than expected.

Based on another article I read, job losses will only peak at the summer of 2010 and we may not see actual job creation until 2012 despite recovery in other economic indicators.  There are several key explanations for this.  But as I have been saying before, that doesn’t matter to voters.  What matters is that they want a job and want it quickly.  As far as they’re concerned, there is no plausible explanation for why jobs can’t return.

As we know 2010 and 2012 are election years.  President Obama and the democratic party know the danger they will face.  They can’t expect any sympathy if they explain that jobs can’t be created as fast as the GDP rate recovers.  So the recovery in other economic figures won’t matter to them.  As I have said numerous times before, Obama and his party can expect 1 sure thing: if they can’t  get the jobs back quickly, they can expect to be counted as some of those who are unemployed.  Assuming 2010 and 2012 go as planned according to the article, Democrats are likely to lose seats, maybe lose control of 1 chamber and Obama will be locked in a tight race against his GOP opponent with the numbers slightly favouring the latter.

 

 

What happened to Obama and the Democrats?

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I think the problem here was that Republicans had a really loud microphone that somehow convinced independents that Obama’s policies are not worth it after all.  While GDP grew for the first time in more than a year, that does not matter.  You have to answer the question “Where are the jobs?”  John Corzine certainly had to answer that well otherwise he would be asking himself “Where is his job?”  And yes, the economy was the top issue even by a plurality of voters.

Sure we can think that this isn’t a referendum on the Obama administration but we frankly know better.  Referendum or not, it does not diminish the psychological impact on the president’s momentum on getting key legislation forward.  To put it in perspective, last year, health care was a winner for Obama but now, after much Republican spinning, a majority are now against how the president is handling the issue of health care.

Analysis on key races

Looks like it’s getting tough out there according to these analysts.  I thought NY-23 will be a good place for Democrats but since I read somewhere else the GOP candidate is bowing out, it changes the game somehow.

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A tight NJ Governor’s Race

If Corzine doesn’t survive this, Democrats are in trouble. It will mean Republicans do have the louder microphone even if they are wrong.

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Virginians Head To Polls To Elect New Governor | WUSA9.com | Washington, DC |

Virginians Head To Polls To Elect New Governor | WUSA9.com | Washington, DC |.

This is the first test to see how loud a microphone Republicans have.  Considering this was where Obama did so well last year, things aren’t looking so promising for him and his party there this time around.

The Noble Peace Sur-prize

First of all, whether he deserves it or not at this point in his presidency, I would like to congratulate President Obama on winning the coveted Nobel Peace Prize.  The reason given was he became a platform on how to improve race relations.  Frankly, not a lot of US presidents have received such an honour, the last one being Woodrow Wilson for his role in attempting to form a league of nations.

This has to be the most stunning of all nominations I have heard about.  Yes, the image of the US may have had at least a slight uptick in the world stage.  The thing is that 8 months don’t tell a lot about someone’s presidency.  Not even the entire Arab world and Hugo Chavez aren’t on board.

In fairness to the President, he acknowledged that it was a surprise to him and said he was humbled.

Surprise or no surprise, this new award raises the bar for the president tremendously.  Ironic or appropriate enough considering it is around now that he has a major decision to make on the War on Afghanistan, something he showed a lot of passion about during the campaign and something a lot would agree America isn’t winning.  While I think there are reasons within the Noble committee that made them chose Obama, only time will tell whether he really deserves it.

Obama and His Enemies: The Once and Constant Opposition — Politics Daily

Obama and His Enemies: The Once and Constant Opposition — Politics Daily

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I think Obama will need to do more PR so that voters can pressure Republicans speaking behind their loud microphone.

President Barack Obama’s Job Approval Rises in AP Poll

President Barack Obama’s Job Approval Rises in AP Poll

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Good news indeed! The question now is if it is too little too late to give a bump to the governors’ races in both Virginia and New Jersey?

James Carville on Glenn Beck

Finally, someone can defend President Obama against ultraconservative attacks especially after they didn’t get the olympics.  It reminds me of a phrase in the movie The American President where Sydnie Ellen Wade asks Andrew Shepherd how could he stand those who say they love America when they can’t stand Americans.

Dems see rise in Jersey, fade in Va. – Jonathan Martin – POLITICO.com

Dems see rise in Jersey, fade in Va. – Jonathan Martin – POLITICO.com

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There’s less than a month to go and I can say the Republican microphone is already loud enough for the Commonwealth of Virginia to get the message that Obama isn’t as inspirational as he was last year. The bright side though is that to the GOP who wants to capture New Jersey, dream on!